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A) Perform the plots of import/export versus yearly & apply the moving average technique to smooth...

A) Perform the plots of import/export versus yearly & apply the moving average technique to smooth them out using PHSTATS.  

B) Please select one of the appropriate forecasting method to predict the import & export (use the data from 1985 to 2018 and try to predict the import/export number of 2019)

year Import (Mil$) Export (Year)
1985 3861.7 3855.7
1986 4771 3106.3
1987 6293.6 3497.3
1988 8510.9 5021.6
1989 11989.7 5755.4
1990 15237.4 4806.4
1991 18969.2 6278.2
1992 25727.5 7418.5
1993 31539.9 8762.9
1994 38786.8 9281.7
1995 45543.2 11753.7
1996 51512.8 11992.6
1997 62557.7 12862.2
1998 71168.6 14241.2
1999 81788.2 13111.1
2000 100018.2 16185.2
2001 102278.4 19182.3
2002 125192.6 22127.7
2003 152436.0969 28367.94286
2004 196682.0339 34427.77246
2005 243470.1048 41192.01012
2006 287774.3526 53673.00834
2007 321442.8669 62936.89158
2008 337772.6278 69732.83754
2009 296373.8835 69496.67861
2010 364952.6336 91911.08094
2011 399371.2326 104121.5236
2012 425619.0826 110516.6157
2013 440430.0196 121746.1886
2014 468474.8949 123657.2034
2015 483201.6554 115873.3653
2016 462419.9916 115594.7845
2017 505220.2333 129797.5872
2018 539675.5908 120148.1411
math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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Answer #1

A) PLOTS of import/ export versus year -

IMPORT (in USD Million) 6,00,000.00 5,00,000.00 4,00,000.00 3,00,000.00 2,00,000.00 1,00,000.00 Year EXPORT (in USD Million)

Using moving average of order 3 for both import and export -

Year Import (Mil$) Export (Year) MA Import MA Export
1985        3,861.70        3,855.70
1986        4,771.00        3,106.30
1987        6,293.60        3,497.30        4,975.43        3,486.43
1988        8,510.90        5,021.60        6,525.17        3,875.07
1989      11,989.70        5,755.40        8,931.40        4,758.10
1990      15,237.40        4,806.40      11,912.67        5,194.47
1991      18,969.20        6,278.20      15,398.77        5,613.33
1992      25,727.50        7,418.50      19,978.03        6,167.70
1993      31,539.90        8,762.90      25,412.20        7,486.53
1994      38,786.80        9,281.70      32,018.07        8,487.70
1995      45,543.20      11,753.70      38,623.30        9,932.77
1996      51,512.80      11,992.60      45,280.93      11,009.33
1997      62,557.70      12,862.20      53,204.57      12,202.83
1998      71,168.60      14,241.20      61,746.37      13,032.00
1999      81,788.20      13,111.10      71,838.17      13,404.83
2000 1,00,018.20      16,185.20      84,325.00      14,512.50
2001 1,02,278.40      19,182.30      94,694.93      16,159.53
2002 1,25,192.60      22,127.70 1,09,163.07      19,165.07
2003 1,52,436.10      28,367.94 1,26,635.70      23,225.98
2004 1,96,682.03      34,427.77 1,58,103.58      28,307.81
2005 2,43,470.10      41,192.01 1,97,529.41      34,662.58
2006 2,87,774.35      53,673.01 2,42,642.16      43,097.60
2007 3,21,442.87      62,936.89 2,84,229.11      52,600.64
2008 3,37,772.63      69,732.84 3,15,663.28      62,114.25
2009 2,96,373.88      69,496.68 3,18,529.79      67,388.80
2010 3,64,952.63      91,911.08 3,33,033.05      77,046.87
2011 3,99,371.23 1,04,121.52 3,53,565.92      88,509.76
2012 4,25,619.08 1,10,516.62 3,96,647.65 1,02,183.07
2013 4,40,430.02 1,21,746.19 4,21,806.78 1,12,128.11
2014 4,68,474.89 1,23,657.20 4,44,841.33 1,18,640.00
2015 4,83,201.66 1,15,873.37 4,64,035.52 1,20,425.59
2016 4,62,419.99 1,15,594.78 4,71,365.51 1,18,375.12
2017 5,05,220.23 1,29,797.59 4,83,613.96 1,20,421.91
2018 5,39,675.59 1,20,148.14 5,02,438.61 1,21,846.84

IMPORT (in USD Million) 6,00,000.00 5,00,000.00 4,00,000.00 3,00,000.00 2,00,000.00 1,00,000.00 ActualImport MA Import EXPORT

B) From the above plots, it is evident that exponential smoothing method of forecasting will be most suitable. The exponential smooth results with dampening factor 0.9 and forecast for 2019 are shown below.

Year Import (Mil$) Export (Year) Exponential Smoothing Import Exponential Smoothing Export
1985        3,861.70        3,855.70
1986        4,771.00        3,106.30                     3,861.70                   3,855.70
1987        6,293.60        3,497.30                     4,680.07                   3,181.24
1988        8,510.90        5,021.60                     6,132.25                   3,465.69
1989      11,989.70        5,755.40                     8,273.03                   4,866.01
1990      15,237.40        4,806.40                   11,618.03                   5,666.46
1991      18,969.20        6,278.20                   14,875.46                   4,892.41
1992      25,727.50        7,418.50                   18,559.83                   6,139.62
1993      31,539.90        8,762.90                   25,010.73                   7,290.61
1994      38,786.80        9,281.70                   30,886.98                   8,615.67
1995      45,543.20      11,753.70                   37,996.82                   9,215.10
1996      51,512.80      11,992.60                   44,788.56                 11,499.84
1997      62,557.70      12,862.20                   50,840.38                 11,943.32
1998      71,168.60      14,241.20                   61,385.97                 12,770.31
1999      81,788.20      13,111.10                   70,190.34                 14,094.11
2000 1,00,018.20      16,185.20                   80,628.41                 13,209.40
2001 1,02,278.40      19,182.30                   98,079.22                 15,887.62
2002 1,25,192.60      22,127.70                1,01,858.48                 18,852.83
2003 1,52,436.10      28,367.94                1,22,859.19                 21,800.21
2004 1,96,682.03      34,427.77                1,49,478.41                 27,711.17
2005 2,43,470.10      41,192.01                1,91,961.67                 33,756.11
2006 2,87,774.35      53,673.01                2,38,319.26                 40,448.42
2007 3,21,442.87      62,936.89                2,82,828.84                 52,350.55
2008 3,37,772.63      69,732.84                3,17,581.46                 61,878.26
2009 2,96,373.88      69,496.68                3,35,753.51                 68,947.38
2010 3,64,952.63      91,911.08                3,00,311.85                 69,441.75
2011 3,99,371.23 1,04,121.52                3,58,488.55                 89,664.15
2012 4,25,619.08 1,10,516.62                3,95,282.96              1,02,675.79
2013 4,40,430.02 1,21,746.19                4,22,585.47              1,09,732.53
2014 4,68,474.89 1,23,657.20                4,38,645.56              1,20,544.82
2015 4,83,201.66 1,15,873.37                4,65,491.96              1,23,345.97
2016 4,62,419.99 1,15,594.78                4,81,430.69              1,16,620.63
2017 5,05,220.23 1,29,797.59                4,64,321.06              1,15,697.37
2018 5,39,675.59 1,20,148.14                5,01,130.32              1,28,387.57
2019                5,35,821.06              1,20,972.08

IMPORT (in USD Million) 6,00,000.00 5,00,000.00 4,00,000.00 3,00,000.00 2,00,000.00 1,00,000.00 Actual Import Exp. Smooth Imp

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