Based on the following data, develop a forecast for the expected demand for Year 2. Assume...
- Based on the following data, develop a forecast for the expected demand for Year 2. Assume the demand for year two will be 86,000 units. Please round to two decimal points in your answers. This is a seasonal demand forecast.
|
Year 1 |
Past Sales (Units) |
|
Quarter 1 |
20,000 |
|
Quarter 2 |
26,000 |
|
Quarter 3 |
18,400 |
|
Quarter 4 |
19,800 |
Answer (You may illustrate this in tables if you wish, but show your calculation within the table)
Homework Answers
Based on the data given,
Total Demand in Year 1 is (20000 + 26000 + 18400 + 19800)= 84,200
Average Demand per quarter in Year 1 is 84200/ 4 = 21050
Hence we will calculate the seasonal factor.
| Year1 | Sales | Seasonal Factor |
| Q1 | 20000 | 20000/21050=0.9501 |
| Q2 | 26000 | 26000/21050=1.2352 |
| Q3 | 18400 | 18400/21050=0.8741 |
| Q4 | 19800 | 19800/21050=0.9406 |
Now as given total demand for Year 2 is 86000
Average demand for Year 2 is 86000/4=21500
Basis this we calculate the forecast for Year 2.
Forecast for a quarter = Seasonal factor for the quarter * average demand for year 2
| Year2 | Forecast |
| Q1 | 0.9501*21500=20427.55 |
| Q2 | 1.2352*21500=26555.82 |
| Q3 | 0.8741*21500=18793.35 |
| Q4 | 0.9406*21500=20223.28 |
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