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I am entering a baking contest. It is a very small contest, and so only three...

I am entering a baking contest. It is a very small contest, and so only three people have submitted cookies (myself, Alice, and Bob). Suppose I submitted 15 cookies and in the past, my cookies have won 5% time. Alice put in only 5 cookies, and each of her cookies have won first prize 7% of past contests. Bob has submitted 10 cookies, and 4% of his cookies have won first prize in past contests.

The contest will choose exactly one of the 30 cookies submitted and give that cookie the first prize. What is the probability that I will win first prize?

math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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