Question

4. A political pollster is conducting an analysis of sample results in order to make predictions regarding an upcoming election. Assuming a two-candidate election, if a specific candidate receives at least 55% of the vote in the sample, that candidate will be forecast as the winner. If a random sample of 100 voters is selected, what is the probability that a candidate will be forecast as the winner (looking for p≥0.55) if

            a. the true population percentage of her vote is 51%

            b. the true population percentage of her vote is 48% (and she will lose the election)?

            c. If the sample size is increased to 500, do your answers to parts (a) and (b) change? If so, why?

Answer 1