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A hiker starts by taking one of 12 available trails, denoted 1, 2, ..., 12. An...

A hiker starts by taking one of 12 available trails, denoted 1, 2, ..., 12. An hour into the hike, trail i subdivides into 1+i subtrails, only one of which leads to the hiker's destination. The hiker has no map and makes random choices of trail and subtrail. What is the probability of reaching the destination?

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