Question

Explain the some of the key steps in the Brexit process and outline some of the key challenges for the UK in this process. (approximately 800 words)

Answer 1

Britons vote for Brexit- On June 23, 2016, Britons chose to end their 43-year EU membership in a 52 percent referendum against 48 percent vote.The next day, as a result of the surprise vote, Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, who called the referendum and led the fight to stay in the EU, resigns. Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson withdraws at the last minute in the race to succeed him, and on July 11 Theresa May, Cameron's six-year interior minister, becomes prime minister.

Clean break- May makes a major speech on January 17, 2017 setting out her Brexit policy, including the exit of Britain from the Single Market in Europe. On March 13, a bill allowing May to invoke Article 50 of the EU Treaty setting out the procedure of leaving the union is finally approved by the UK parliament.

Exit process triggered- The government officially declares the intention to leave in a letter to EU President Donald Tusk on March 29, setting in motion Article 50. The two-year withdrawal period was scheduled to end by March 29, 2019.

Lost majority- May calls for a snap election on June 8 to capitalize on the opposition Labor Party's perceived weakness and strengthen its hand in Brexit talks. As the Conservatives lose their parliamentary majority, their gamble backfires. We were expected to reach an agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland in order to be able to rule. British issues guarantee that an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will be retained after Brexit becomes a major sticking point in negotiations. May is on the cusp of an agreement on December 4, but at the last minute the DUP scuppers the contract.

First terms - After all-night talks, Britain and the EU reached an agreement on certain primary exit terms in early December 2017. These include as part of the settlement the UK's EU bill. EU leaders are providing the go-ahead for the next stage of Brexit negotiations, including how Britain will continue to trade with the bloc after the break.

Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon, which was never used before, sets a two-year deadline for reaching an agreement. Generally considered to be a tight deadline, it can only be extended if all 28 Member States consent. Once the United Kingdom asks the EU to leave under Article 50, it "will not engage in the European Union or Council negotiations or decisions on it," the rule says. The UK will therefore be cut off at the highest level from EU decision-making on some issues before it actually leaves. The process requires the United Kingdom to unpick some 80,000 pages of laws that bind the UK to the EU. Some will be retained, as some EU policy areas are shared with non-EU countries.

Talks may begin, but not certainly, during the two-year withdrawal negotiation period to establish new UK-EU trade agreements. If the EU awaits the official withdrawal of the United Kingdom, the talks can go on for another five years or more. The UK must trade with the EU under the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO) until an agreement is reached. That would mean this UK exporters will pay new EU import tariffs and face non-tariff barriers just as China and the US deal with the EU. Public services will lose their preferential access to the EU single market, responsible for 80% of the UK economy.

Full access to the EU Single Market, the largest free trade area in the world with 500 million consumers, the Remain camp said was crucial for the UK. Yet free movement of workers, payments into the EU budget and EU rulebook approval are requirements for that access. It is unlikely that the EU will bend to these conditions, as it does not want more members to leave the club. The United Kingdom may well subscribe to these conditions, but it would not be able to influence EU rules, as there would be no vote. Many in the Brexit camp see this position as unfair, exemplified by Norway.

The UK will cease to pay into the EU budget once it exits the union officially. So the current net investment from the UK of around £ 8.5bn (€ 11bn; $12.5bn) would stay at home every year. As suggested by some in the Brexit camp, it could be spent partly on the National Health Service, or used to scrap VAT on fuel. Yet UK farmers are no longer going to receive direct payments from the EU, worth around £ 2.4 billion in 2015. It is not clear how much of that will continue to be paid by the UK government if any. Nor is it clear how much the poorest regions of the United Kingdom will gain in the future now that they are no longer qualified for EU regional support.