Question

In the primaries leading up to the 2016 presidential​ election, a news website reported that the two politicians were in a​ "statistical tie" in the polls leading up to a state primary. Politician A led politician B​ 43% to​ 35% in the​ polls, with a margin of error of​ 5.2%. Explain what this this means to someone who may be unfamiliar with margin of error and confidence intervals.

The confidence interval for politician A is

left parenthesis nothing % comma nothing % right parenthesis%, %

and the confidence interval for politician B is

left parenthesis nothing % comma nothing % right parenthesis%, %.

Since the intervals

▼

overlap,

do not overlap,

we

▼

can

cannot

predict that politician A is favored over politician B to​ win, with this margin of error.

Answer 1

The confidence interval for politician A is (43 - 5.2 % ,  43 + 5.2 %)

The confidence interval for politician A is (37.8 % ,  48.2 %)

The confidence interval for politician B is (35 - 5.2 % ,  35 + 5.2 %)

The confidence interval for politician A is (29.8 % ,  40.2 %)

Since the intervals overlap, we cannot predict that politician A is favored over politician B to​ win, with this margin of error.