Question

E I MINDTAP Video eBook Consider the following time series. Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 71 49 58 73 68 41 60 86 62 51 53 72 a. Choose a time series plot. TimeSeries Value 60 40 20 TimePeriod(t) TimeSeries Value -60 40 20 Time Periodit) TimeSeries Value ype here to search TimeSeries Valu 60 40 20 Time Periodt) TimeSeries Vale 40 b. Use the folio ving dummy variables to devel。an estmsted regression munion to accent for seasonal effects in the dma Qtri Qtr3 1 it Quarter 3, 0 otherwse. Enter negative values as negative numbers if Quinte 2 Onther se; tr2- t Qurter otherwise; Qtr3 c. Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year Quarter 1 torecast Quarter 2 torecast O Type here to search arch this course TaneSeries Value 40 20 Select your answer What type of pattern exists in the data? se the followong3mmth va ables to develop an estimated regresso equationtoacourtfor seasonaletectsnrheda a:Qt,-1+Quarter 1,0 the wise, QaaliQuarter 2,0,herwe, 0 Qtr2 + Value c. Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year Quarter 1 forecast Quarter 2 forecast Quarter 3 forecast Quarter 4 forecast Check My Work Type here to search

Answer 1

A)

100 70 60 50 30 20 10 10 12

first graph is correct

there is seasonality

b)

y	t	Q1	Q2	Q3
71	1	1	0	0
49	2	0	1	0
58	3	0	0	1
73	4	0	0	0
68	5	1	0	0
41	6	0	1	0
60	7	0	0	1
86	8	0	0	0
62	9	1	0	0
51	10	0	1	0
53	11	0	0	1
72	12	0	0	0

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R	0.926879997
R Square	0.859106529
Adjusted R Square	0.806271478
Standard Error	5.545268253
Observations	12
ANOVA
	df	SS	MS	F	Significance F
Regression	3	1500	500	16.2601626	0.000913397
Residual	8	246	30.75
Total	11	1746
	Coefficients	Standard Error	t Stat	P-value	Lower 95%
Intercept	77	3.201562119	24.05075933	9.52161E-09	69.61718452
Q1	-10	4.527692569	-2.208630521	0.058205203	-20.44087779
Q2	-30	4.527692569	-6.625891564	0.000164883	-40.44087779
Q3	-20	4.527692569	-4.417261043	0.002234643	-30.44087779

value = 77 - 10 Q1 -30 Q2 -20 Q3  

C)

Year	Quarter	Ft
4	1	67.000
4	2	47.000
4	3	57.000
4	4	77.000