Question

Quarter Year1 Year 2 Year 3 71 49 58 76 68 41 60 78 62 51 53 רך 2 4 a. Choose a time series plot. 2 TimeSeries Value 6 0 40 20 TimePeriod (t) 2 TimeSeries Value 60 4 0 20 TimePeriod(t) 3 TimeSeries Value 60 4 20 TimePeriod(t) 4 TimeSeries Value 0 0 20 TimePeriod (t) Select your answer What type of pattern exists in the data? - Select your answer rl uarteră, otherwise: is b. Use the following dummy variables to develop an estimated regression equation to account for seasonal effects in the data Quarter 3, 0 otherwise. Enter negative values as negative numbers. Value c. Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year Quarter 1 forecast Quarter 2 forecast Quarter 3 forecast Quarter 4 forecast f uarter r2 otherwis Qtr1+ Qtr2 + Qtr3

Answer 1

Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 71 49 58 76 68 41 60 78 62 51 53 4 01 02 03 71 49 58 76 68 41 60 78 62 51 53 4 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 10 12

a)

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 10 1214 4 8

b)

SUMMARY OUTPUT Re Statistics MultipleR R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations 0.960473438 0.922509225 0.893450185 3.968626967 12 ANOVA cance F 8.59397E-05 MS Regression Residual Total 1500 126 1626 500 15.75 31.74603175 Coefficients Standard Error t Stot P-value Upper 95% Lower 95.0% er 95.0% 82.28371925 2.527692581 22.52769258 12.52769258 lower 95% 2.291287847 3.240370349 3.240370349 3.240370349 71.71628075 17.47230742 37.47230742 27.47230742 33.6055551 3.086066999 9.258200998 -6.172133998 6.71263E-10 0.014978544 1.5045E-05 0.000267439 71.71628075 17.47230742 37.47230742 27.47230742 82.28371925 2.527692581 22.52769258 12.52769258 erce X Variable 1 X Variable 2 x Variable 3 10 30 20

y^ = 77 - 10Q1 - 30Q2 - 20Q3

c)

Quarterly forecast for next year

Q1	67
Q2	47
Q3	57
Q4	77