Question

Probability

The concepts of at least one, conditional probability, statistical independence, and expected value. Explore the use of tree diagrams to clarify the main elements of a long-term plan for a company.

Utilizing your understanding of probability statistics and Excel complete the following exercises.

A. At Least One

In Management, LLC is a small hotel management company based in Utah that manages five hotel properties. Members of the management group have decided they would like to expand so that they are managing 10 to 12 properties. John, the owner of In Management, LLC, has a prospect in St. George (Utah). This prospect owns one (1) hotel and has a 75% chance of becoming a part of In Management. Jane, another member of the management team, knows the owner of three (3) hotels in the Logan area. She thinks there is a 50-50 chance that this firm would join In Management. Jackson, a third In Management group member, has made contact with the owner of two hotels in Green River, but he feels there is only a 25% chance that owner would contract with a hotel management company.

1. What is the probability that at least one of these three prospects would sign a hotel management contract
with In Management, LLC?
2. Suppose you are the owner of In Management, LLC. Is this percentage high enough to cause you to
advertise for another employee

Answer 1

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