Question

PART IV Planning and Controling Operations and Supply Chains 290 period 1 was 250. Plot the results. Which model appears to work better? Why? 10. After graduating from college, you and your friends start selling birdhouses made from recycled plast has caught on, as shown by the following sales figures For problems 4 through 6, use the following time series data: The idea DEMAND MONTH January 2012 February March April May June 119 DEMAND 72 113 82 MONTH 220 March April May June July August 2,240 1,790 4,270 3,530 4,990 131 111 August September 116 89 95 October November a. ) Prepare forecasts for June through September by us- ing a three-period moving average model. b. (**) Prepare forecasts for June through September by using an exponential smoothing model with a =0.5. Assume that the forecast for May was 2,000. c. () Prepare forecasts for June through September by using an adjusted exponential smoothing mod a0.5 and B 0.3. Assume forecast (F) or ay was 2,000 and the trend factor (T,) for May was 700 90 December 4. ( Develop a three-period moving average forecast for April 2012 through January 2013. Calculate the MFE, MAD, and MAPE values for April through December 2012 two-period weighted moving average fore- adiusted 5. () Devel for March 2012 through January 2013. Use weights of 0.6 and 0.4, with the most recent observation weighted higher. Calculate the MFE, MAD, and MAPE values for March through December. 11. ) Your manager has come to you with the following data, showing actual demand for five periods and forecast results for two different models. He has asked you to tell him which forecast model is "best" and why. Using MFE MAD, and MAPE, tell him which model is best and why. 6. ()Develop an exponential smoothing forecast (a = 0.3) for February 2012 through January 2013. Assume that your forecast for January 2012 was 100. Calculate MAD, and MAPE values for February through December 2013. FORECAST FORECAST ACTUAL For problems 7 through 9, use the following time series data: MODEL MODEL 2 PERIOD DEMAND 486 341 364 248 280 357 423 PERIOD DEMAND 295 349 10 364 221 416 1 286 11 380 247 354 2 444 12 228 3 12. ( Consider the following forecast results. Calculate MFE, MAD, and MAPE, using the data for the months January through June. Does the forecast model under- or overforecast? 233 4 240 5 152 6 163 7 155 FORECAST ACTUAL DEMAND 10 MONTH 1,055 1,040 January February March 7. ) Develop a last period forecast for periods 2 through 11. Calculate the MFE, MAD, and 990 900 values for periods 2 1,025 1.060 through 10. Is this a good model? Why? April 1,100 1,050 1,080 1,000 8. () Develop a three-period weighted moving average forecast for periods 4 through 11. Use weights of 0.4, 0.35, and 0.3, with the most recent observation weighted the highest. Calculate the MFE, MAD, and MAPE values for periods 4 through 10. How do your results compare with those for problem 7? June 13. After graduation, you take a position at Top-Slice, a well- known manufacturer of golf bs sine the follow- forecast monthly demand for golf ssion model that expresses ing da, as a function of average temperature for the 9. (**) Develop two exponential smoothing forecasts for pe- riods 2 through 11. For the first forecast, use a the second, use a = 0.7. Assume that your forecast for sales 0.2. For month

Please help with questions 7 - 10.

Answer 1

Q7.

Last period Forecast and Error analysis is following:

A B C E E G Last period Demand Period 1 FE AD APE Forecast 2 1 221 10.53% 3 2 247 221 26 26 8.33% 4 3 228 247 -19 19 2.15% 5 4 233 228 5 5 2.92% 6 5 240 233 7 7 57.89% 7 6 152 240 -88 88 6.75% 8 7 163 152 11 11 5.16% 155 163 -8 8 12 7.19% 10 167 155 12 5.70% 11 10 158 167 -9 9 12 11 158 13 14 15 МЕE MAD МАРЕ 11.85% -7.00 16 20.56 17 18 19 LO

EXCEL FORMULAS:

Period	Demand	Last period Forecast	FE	AD	APE
1	221
2	247	=B2	=B3-C3	=ABS(D3)	=E3/B3
3	228	=B3	=B4-C4	=ABS(D4)	=E4/B4
4	233	=B4	=B5-C5	=ABS(D5)	=E5/B5
5	240	=B5	=B6-C6	=ABS(D6)	=E6/B6
6	152	=B6	=B7-C7	=ABS(D7)	=E7/B7
7	163	=B7	=B8-C8	=ABS(D8)	=E8/B8
8	155	=B8	=B9-C9	=ABS(D9)	=E9/B9
9	167	=B9	=B10-C10	=ABS(D10)	=E10/B10
10	158	=B10	=B11-C11	=ABS(D11)	=E11/B11
11		=B11
			MFE	MAD	MAPE
			=AVERAGE(D3:D11)	=AVERAGE(E3:E11)	=AVERAGE(F3:F11)

MAPE is nearly 12% , which is significantly high. Therefore, this is not a good model.