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ected Utility Suppose that a safety agency is thinking of establishing a criterion under which an area prone to flooding should be evacuated The probability of flooding is 1%. There are four possible outcomes: (A): No flood and no evacuation is performed. P (B): No flood but an evacuation is performed. (C): There is a flood and an evacuation is performed. 1- (D): There is a flood but no evacuation is performed. - Suppose that th that the agency is indifferent between the sure outcome B and the lottery of A with probability p and D with probability (1-p). Also assume that is an expected utility maximizer. Suppose furtherthe agency is indifferent between the sure outcome C and the lottery of B with probabiity q and D with probability (1. Suppose it aloprefers A to D and that 0 < p < 1 and 0 < q < 1. Let us normalize by setting the utility of getting the sure outcome A to be 1 and the utility of getting ie sure Uuu:Ullie (af (10%) Determine the expected utility of sure outcome!Band the expected utility of sure outcome C for the agency. (20%) Consider two different policy criteria: -k -criterion 1: This criterion will result in an evacuation in 90% of the cases in which fiooding occurs and an unnecessary evacuation in 10% of the cases in which no flooding occurs. 9 q /-ti. Criterion 2: This criterion is more conservative. It results in an evacualiou ш 95% of uie cases in which flooding occurs and an unnecessary evacuation in(5% of the cases in which no flooding occurs. Recall that the probability of flooding is 1%/Derive the probability distributions over the four outcomes under these two criteria. Then by using the utilities you calculate in (a), decide which criterion the agency will choose.

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abe챙 a en영..s Suppose th at s estabishina a cviterionundes ushih on area prdne to odngshould be evacuaded oelermlne the Bond

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