Question

'superforecasters' are super because of their ability to constantly consider problems from multiple angles. For many people, this is not something that comes naturally (and as a consequence frequently means we are blinded by our prior perceptions, beliefs and experiences). How can we make sure that we avoid this trap? How can we make sure that we do not subconsciously avoid the hard questions by replacing them by easier questions? On the other hand, if good forecasters take take the "dragonfly eye" approach, and constantly say "On the other hand..." how do they actually weigh these different angles or finally come to a conclusion?

Answer 1

Forecasters do the job of predicting the issues and finding the solutions for the multiple problems with in the organization or outside with their observation and interpretation skills. Forecasting may not be always correct when followed based on the perceptions and past experiences. The people as well as the situations changes continuously and so does the issues and the solutions. Super forecasters keep them updated with the changing demands and needs of the people and the negativity attached to it. This makes them easier to come up with a probability of success or failure in the venture and also the corrective remedies.

People always tend to follow the experiences to predict the feasibility of the methods adopted in the organizations. The decisions and forecast made should not be on the basis of the factors from the past. The situations and the conditions controlling the methods may vary with time and the forecast done based on the past experiences may prove wrong.

The forecasters have a dragon fly approach to the issues and event ahead of them. They analyze and interpret the situation from various angles and screen for issues and solutions. They are always prepared with multiple options for the same problem. They have in hand the pros and cons of the decision taken and evaluate the decision taken from all the angles. This makes their forecasting more reliable and convincing.