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Use data in worksheet “Time Series”. Plot the data for each store. Develop a sales forecast...

  • Use data in worksheet “Time Series”. Plot the data for each store.
  • Develop a sales forecast for each of the 10 stores for the month of December, using:
  1. A three month moving average
  2. A 2- month weighted moving average, with weights of 0.7 on the most recent month and 0.3 on the older month.
  3. Exponential smoothing with an alpha value of 0.25. Assume February forecast is January’s actual.
  4. Compute measures of forecast accuracy to recommend the best forecasting technique to use for the data.
  5. Rank the 10 stores based on the forecasts you made with the technique that you determined (in the above step) to be the best forecasting method.

I NEED A 3 MOTH MOVING AVERAGE

A 2 MONTH WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHIN WITH ALPA VALUE .25

Store Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A1 $11,801.75 $11,801.75 $9,766.96 $10,072.18 $8,647.83 $12,208.70 $9,665.22 $9,461.75 $10,479.14 $8,953.05 $9,054.79 ?
A2 $7,076.54 $6,480.62 $6,033.68 $7,672.46 $7,300.01 $7,151.03 $6,853.07 $8,491.85 $7,746.95 $7,300.01 $7,300.01 ?
A3 $19,992.55 $19,107.92 $16,277.12 $15,215.57 $15,392.49 $16,277.12 $19,107.92 $20,700.25 $18,046.37 $19,107.92 $15,038.64 ?
A4 $13,929.10 $10,562.90 $9,750.37 $12,884.41 $9,402.14 $9,634.29 $12,071.88 $12,304.03 $10,446.82 $10,911.13 $13,464.79 ?
A5 $36,436.19 $26,112.60 $28,845.32 $33,096.20 $28,238.05 $28,845.32 $27,327.14 $33,703.47 $36,132.55 $32,792.57 $31,578.03 ?
A6 $14,428.95 $14,111.83 $13,794.71 $17,758.71 $17,917.27 $15,221.75 $12,684.79 $13,636.15 $13,794.71 $12,843.35 $17,917.27 ?
A7 $17,056.90 $16,757.65 $16,907.27 $15,111.81 $16,009.54 $14,363.70 $16,308.79 $16,907.27 $14,513.32 $16,907.27 $16,009.54 ?
A8 $15,277.15 $14,071.06 $12,060.91 $15,009.13 $13,669.03 $16,081.21 $11,926.90 $11,122.84 $15,545.17 $11,792.89 $10,854.82 ?
A9 $2,629.69 $3,229.95 $3,315.70 $2,343.86 $2,486.77 $3,401.45 $3,058.45 $3,144.20 $2,886.94 $2,772.61 $3,287.11 ?
A10 $30,525.84 $26,743.88 $31,336.26 $30,255.70 $27,554.30 $24,042.48 $31,066.12 $31,336.26 $27,284.16 $23,772.34 $23,772.34 ?
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Answer #1
a. A three-month moving average
Store Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A1 11801.75 11801.75 9766.96 10072.18 8647.83 12208.70 9665.22 9461.75 10479.14 8953.05 9054.79 $    9,495.66
A2 7076.54 6480.62 6033.68 7672.46 7300.01 7151.03 6853.07 8491.85 7746.95 7300.01 7300.01 $    7,448.99
A3 19992.55 19107.92 16277.12 15215.57 15392.49 16277.12 19107.32 20700.25 18046.37 19107.92 15038.64 $ 17,397.64
A4 13929.10 10562.90 9750.37 12884.41 9402.14 9634.29 12071.88 12304.03 10446.82 10911.13 13464.79 $ 11,607.58
A5 36436.19 26112.60 28845.32 33096.20 28238.05 28845.32 27327.14 33703.47 36132.55 32792.57 31578.03 $ 33,501.05
A6 14428.95 14111.83 13794.71 17758.71 17917.27 15221.75 12684.79 13636.15 13794.71 12843.35 17917.27 $ 14,851.78
A7 17056.90 16757.65 16907.27 15111.81 16009.54 14363.70 16308.79 16907.27 14513.32 16907.27 16009.54 $ 15,810.04
A8 15277.15 14071.06 12060.91 15009.13 13669.03 16081.21 11926.90 11122.84 15545.17 11792.89 10854.82 $ 12,730.96
A9 2629.69 3229.95 3315.70 2343.86 2486.77 3401.45 3058.45 3144.20 2886.94 2772.61 3287.11 $    2,982.22
A10 30525.84 26743.88 31336.26 30255.70 27554.30 24042.48 31066.12 31336.26 27284.16 23772.34 23772.34 $ 24,942.95
# month moving average = (A1+A2+…+An)/n
where An is the actual value for period n and n is the number of periods.
b. 2- month weighted moving average, with weights of 0.7 on the most recent month and 0.3 on the older month.
Store Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A1 11801.75 11801.75 9766.96 10072.18 8647.83 12208.70 9665.22 9461.75 10479.14 8953.05 9054.79 $    9,024.27
A2 7076.54 6480.62 6033.68 7672.46 7300.01 7151.03 6853.07 8491.85 7746.95 7300.01 7300.01 $    7,300.01
A3 19992.55 19107.92 16277.12 15215.57 15392.49 16277.12 19107.32 20700.25 18046.37 19107.92 15038.64 $ 16,259.42
A4 13929.10 10562.90 9750.37 12884.41 9402.14 9634.29 12071.88 12304.03 10446.82 10911.13 13464.79 $ 12,698.69
A5 36436.19 26112.60 28845.32 33096.20 28238.05 28845.32 27327.14 33703.47 36132.55 32792.57 31578.03 $ 31,942.39
A6 14428.95 14111.83 13794.71 17758.71 17917.27 15221.75 12684.79 13636.15 13794.71 12843.35 17917.27 $ 16,395.09
A7 17056.90 16757.65 16907.27 15111.81 16009.54 14363.70 16308.79 16907.27 14513.32 16907.27 16009.54 $ 16,278.86
A8 15277.15 14071.06 12060.91 15009.13 13669.03 16081.21 11926.90 11122.84 15545.17 11792.89 10854.82 $ 11,136.24
A9 2629.69 3229.95 3315.70 2343.86 2486.77 3401.45 3058.45 3144.20 2886.94 2772.61 3287.11 $    3,132.76
A10 30525.84 26743.88 31336.26 30255.70 27554.30 24042.48 31066.12 31336.26 27284.16 23772.34 23772.34 $ 23,772.34
Weighted Moving Average = (A1*W1+A2*W2+…+An*Wn)
where An is the actual value for period n and Wn is the assigned weight for the period.
c. Exponential smoothing with an alpha value of 0.25. Assume February forecast is January’s actual.
Store Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A1 11801.75 11801.75 9766.96 10072.18 8647.83 12208.70 9665.22 9461.75 10479.14 8953.05 9054.79
Forecast 11801.75 11801.75 11293.05 10987.83 10402.83 10854.30 10557.03 10283.21 10332.19 9987.41 $    9,754.25
A2 7076.54 6480.62 6033.68 7672.46 7300.01 7151.03 6853.07 8491.85 7746.95 7300.01 7300.01
Forecast 7076.54 6927.56 6704.09 6946.18 7034.64 7063.74 7011.07 7381.27 7472.69 7429.52 $    7,397.14
A3 19992.55 19107.92 16277.12 15215.57 15392.49 16277.12 19107.32 20700.25 18046.37 19107.92 15038.64
Forecast 19992.55 19771.39 18897.82 17977.26 17331.07 17067.58 17577.52 18358.20 18280.24 18487.16 $ 17,625.03
A4 13929.10 10562.90 9750.37 12884.41 9402.14 9634.29 12071.88 12304.03 10446.82 10911.13 13464.79
Forecast 13929.10 13087.55 12253.26 12411.04 11658.82 11152.69 11382.48 11612.87 11321.36 11218.80 $ 11,780.30
A5 36436.19 26112.60 28845.32 33096.20 28238.05 28845.32 27327.14 33703.47 36132.55 32792.57 31578.03
Forecast 36436.19 33855.29 32602.80 32726.15 31604.12 30914.42 30017.60 30939.07 32237.44 32376.22 $ 32,176.67
A6 14428.95 14111.83 13794.71 17758.71 17917.27 15221.75 12684.79 13636.15 13794.71 12843.35 17917.27
Forecast 14428.95 14349.67 14210.93 15097.88 15802.72 15657.48 14914.31 14594.77 14394.75 14006.90 $ 14,984.49
A7 17056.90 16757.65 16907.27 15111.81 16009.54 14363.70 16308.79 16907.27 14513.32 16907.27 16009.54
Forecast 17056.90 16982.09 16963.38 16500.49 16377.75 15874.24 15982.88 16213.98 15788.81 16068.43 $ 16,053.70
A8 15277.15 14071.06 12060.91 15009.13 13669.03 16081.21 11926.90 11122.84 15545.17 11792.89 10854.82
Forecast 15277.15 14975.63 14246.95 14437.49 14245.38 14704.34 14009.98 13288.19 13852.44 13337.55 $ 12,716.87
A9 2629.69 3229.95 3315.70 2343.86 2486.77 3401.45 3058.45 3144.20 2886.94 2772.61 3287.11
Forecast 2629.69 2779.76 2913.74 2771.27 2700.15 2875.47 2921.22 2976.96 2954.46 2909.00 $    3,003.52
A10 30525.84 26743.88 31336.26 30255.70 27554.30 24042.48 31066.12 31336.26 27284.16 23772.34 23772.34
Forecast 30525.84 29580.35 30019.33 30078.42 29447.39 28096.16 28838.65 29463.05 28918.33 27631.83 $ 26,666.96
Exponential Smoothing, F(t+1)=α*A(t)+(1-α)*F(t)
where, F(t) is the forecast for period t, and A(t) is the actual value for period t.
α 0.25

formula used:

part c:

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