Question

Do you use probability in your profession or real life? You most likely do without consciously knowing it. Give one example of how you have used probability in your life. Were you able to determine the probability based on the classical method, the relative frequency method, or the subjective method? Explain. Now think about all the times you do use probability each day and explain which of the three methods you utilize the most throughout the day, and why.

Answer 1

Yes, I had used probability in real life. For eg. , while going outside the home for some shopping purpose, we need to make some estimation regarding the chances that it would rain or not. In this case, one needs to use SUBJECTIVE METHOD because we can't assume that all outcomes (i.e. rain vs not rain) are equally likely which is the assumption needed in classical method and also we can't carry out experiments to count the relative frequency of rain vs not rain. Hence we use subjective method.

Other examples of using probability are : 1. Estimating chances of getting a job after applying for it. 2. Estimating the chances of home team winning the basketball game in my college. 3. Chances of the patient getting cured after taking a specific medicine. In most of the cases in daily life, we use SUBJECTIVE METHOD because it is impossible to conduct large number of experiments as needed in relative frequency case and it is useless to assume everything is equally likely since that is the thing we want to determine.

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