Question

4. For the following project, the expected times and variances for the project activities are given. a. Draw the AON diagram. b. What is the probability of completing the project in 30 time periods? (10 points) Activity ID Predecessor ariance [(b-a)/6) 4 1 2 Naluna 2, 5, 6, 7 Z Value Probability Z Value Probability +0.0 9893

Answer 1

Activity Predecessor Estimated Variance 2 1 Tome CTe) . [Cb-ca) 16] ² ID – Mr no + ထဲ o+= 0 SN 8 က လွr - , 5, 6, + AON Diagram PE ပြီး ၈ ဦး

Possible Paths Start -1-4-6-8 Start -1-5-8 Staat -2-8 Start-3-7-8 Tome 6+4 + 16+2=28 6+10+2 = 18 7+2= 9 4+3+2= 9 Since critical path is the path with longest duration, So critical path = Start-1-4-6-8 or simply 1-4-6-8 Vostikostte Therefore, mean pooject duration =18 So, u=28 Variance of critical path Cv) = 3+2 Hoth - =16 Standard deviation, o=√r

Sog r = 16 0=4 Probability that 30 time beriods. (6) project will finish in 50% area 50% area Vi Normal Distribution - Graph 29 30 M=28 The skadad The shaded region represents the probability that project will finish in 30 time periods! Probability (x=39 = P(Z = x - M) z Prob. (2= 30-28) = Prob. (2=0.5) Use za table to find value of **

Probabilety (x = 30) => 0.6915 i. Probability that the project will - complete in 30 days = 06915

The probability that the project will complete in 30 time periods is 0.6915.

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