Question

Problem 9-09 (Algorithmic)

At a local university, the Student Commission on Programming and Entertainment (SCOPE) is preparing to host its first rock concert of the school year. To successfully produce this rock concert, SCOPE has listed the requisite activities and related information in the following table (duration estimates measured in days).

		Immediate		Most
Activity		Predecessor(s)	Optimistic	Probable	Pessimistic
A:	Negotiate contract with	-	9	10	11
	selected musicians
B:	Reserve site	-	7	9	11
C:	Manage travel logistics	A	1	6	8
	for music group
D:	Screen & hire	B	3	4	5
	security personnel
E:	Arrange advertising	C	6	6	6
	& ticketing
F:	Hire parking staff	A, D	7	8	15
G:	Arrange concession sales	E	5	6	10

e. What is the likelihood that the project will be completed within 30 days? If required, round your answer to four decimals. Note: Use Appendix B to identify the probability.

Likelihood = .9131

g. Using all paths through the project network, estimate the probability that the project will be completed within 30 days. Compare your answer to the answer in part e and explain. Round your answers for  values to 2 decimal places and for probability values to 4 decimal places.

For path B-D-F:

z= [          ]

Cumulative probability  [          ]

For path A-F:

z=  [          ]

Cumulative probability  [          ]

P(entire project completed) [          ]

I created my own spreadsheet and calculated the variance, standard deviation, critical path, ES, LS, EF, LF etc. This is the only portion of the question that just isn't making sense. All of my calculations when I input into the answers in (g) are incorrect. Just need help understanding.

ACTIVITY	OPTIMISTIC	MOST PROBABLE	PESSIMISTIC	EXPECTED TIMES	VARIANCE	STANDARD DEVIATION	CRITICAL PATH
A	9	10	11	10.000000000	0.111111111	0.285714286	A-C-E-G
B	7	9	11	9.000000000	0.444444444	0.571428571	A-F
C	1	6	8	5.500000000	1.361111111	1.000000000	B-D-F
D	3	4	5	4.000000000	0.111111111	0.285714286
E	6	6	6	6.000000000	0.000000000	0.000000000
F	7	8	15	9.000000000	1.777777778	1.142857143
G	5	6	10	6.500000000	0.694444444	0.714285714

Answer 1